Sanctions and Tariffs Drive Rising Global Tensions
Economic confrontation between major powers has emerged as the most serious threat to global stability, according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026. The report, released ahead of the WEF’s annual meeting in Davos, identifies geoeconomic conflict — including the growing use of sanctions, tariffs, and trade restrictions — as the top risk facing the world this year.
Based on insights from more than 1,300 experts across business, government, academia, and civil society, the findings suggest anxiety is rising fast. Half of those surveyed expect the world to be “turbulent or stormy” over the next two years, up sharply from 36% last year. Only a small minority believe stability or calm is on the horizon. Looking further ahead, most respondents predict prolonged global instability over the next decade.
WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi described the report as an early warning system in an increasingly competitive world. She stressed that while risks are growing — from economic confrontation to unchecked technological development — none are inevitable if global cooperation improves.
Trade Wars and Political Rivalries Shake the Global Order
Geoeconomic confrontation ranked as the most likely trigger for a global crisis in 2026, with 18% of respondents naming it as the top danger. It also placed first in severity over the next two years, climbing sharply from last year’s rankings.
The report warns that escalating rivalries between powerful nations threaten supply chains, weaken global economic stability, and reduce the world’s ability to respond to future shocks. The concerns follow a turbulent year in global trade, driven in part by sweeping US tariff policies that disrupted international commerce and increased costs for consumers and businesses worldwide.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions continue to simmer. More than two-thirds of respondents expect the world to move toward a “multipolar or fragmented order” over the next decade. Economic risks are also on the rise, with fears of downturns, inflation, asset bubbles, and mounting debt all climbing in urgency. Together, these pressures could fuel a new era of market volatility.
Technology, Misinformation, and Climate Risks Add to the Strain
Beyond economic warfare, misinformation and disinformation were ranked as the second most serious short-term global risk, closely followed by societal polarization. Cyber insecurity remains a major concern, while the potential negative consequences of artificial intelligence saw the steepest rise in long-term risk rankings, reflecting growing unease about AI’s impact on jobs, security, and social stability.
Environmental dangers slipped slightly in short-term rankings as immediate political and economic crises take center stage. Still, over the next decade, climate-related threats dominate the outlook. Extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and critical changes to Earth’s systems are viewed as the most severe long-term risks. Three-quarters of respondents expect environmental conditions to become increasingly turbulent.
Zahidi emphasized that cooperation remains essential. The report highlights a world facing geopolitical shocks, rapid technological change, climate instability, social division, and economic uncertainty — challenges that demand shared responsibility and collective action to shape a safer future.
